Kensington: “The Most Marginal Seat in London” and my new home
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Next week, I move to Kensington – the “Most Marginal Seat in London” for our July 4th election. Just 150 votes decided the last election in this Conservative seat, a 0.3% higher share of votes than the next candidate. The previous election was won by just 20 votes, and was recounted three times - it was the only election since the constituency’s creation that Labour had won. This year, there’s a 90% chance that Labour wins the seat again. But they can’t afford to be complacent, given Kensington’s demographics and how precarious historic votes have been.
First, some background on our electoral system. The UK’s House of Commons is the elected portion of our parliament, with the country divided into 650 constituencies of roughly equal population (just over 100,000 on average[1]). Our candidates are elected using a “first past the post” system, which means they win if they get more votes than anyone else, and are often elected without a majority. The party who wins the most seats usually forms the government and their party leader becomes Prime Minister[2].
The Kensington constituency was created in 1974, under re-destricting that united the Kensington North and South seats. Re-districting is where governments adjust electoral boundaries to account for changes in population. What happens in practice is sometimes a political calculation by the party in power, separating voters by divisions that are more likely to lead to their desirable electoral result. In the US, an entire alphabet has been made out of “gerrymandered” seats that have been re-districted in ridiculous ways to favour incumbents.
Kensington South was reliably Conservative since 1885, while Kensington North swung to Labour in 1945. In the 1970s, under a Conservative government, these two constituencies were merged. Aside from 2017-2019, Kensington voted Conservative ever since, including during a period when it was merged with another affluent neighbourhood, Chelsea.
Kensington is one of the richest neighbourhoods in the UK. It has the highest median house prices of any constituency at £1.3 million, 4.6 times the country average. Its median wages are the fourth highest, 1.5 times the national average. Kensington is home to the one of the royal palaces, and its buildings teem with opulence.
Yet it was also home to Grenfell Tower, a public housing building which tragically burned down 7 years and 2 days ago, killing 72 people. 69% of residents voted to stay in the EU, versus the nationwide average of 48%. Kensington’s residents are more foreign-born, with 46% of residents born in the UK versus 59% in London and 83% in England. While Kensington is less ethnically diverse than London, it is more so than the rest of England. 61% of residents identify as white, compared to 81% nationwide.
Partly as a result of diversity within the district, Kensington’s council is split. The Northern seats are with Labour, while the Southern with Conservatives, along historical national election lines.
Council elections by ward, Kensington and Chelsea, 2022 (Wikipedia image)
(Red = Labour, Blue = Conservative)
Kensington has been redistricted again for the upcoming election to include Bayswater for the first time. The new Kensington and Bayswater Constituency is picking up residents from Conservative-voting constituencies in Westminster and Chelsea, and some from Labour-voting Westminster North. Labour is polling incredibly well, but this redistricting adds some uncertainty to the highly marginal seat.
Kensington Constituency Boundaries, 2019 (Black) and 2024 (Pink) (Ordnance Survey)
Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat campaign teams are hitting the streets with zeal to secure this marginal seat. Despite the likelihood of a Labour victory, it also seems winnable for the Conservatives with the right canvassing strategy, or if Liberal Democrats somehow split a Labour vote.
I will report back with stories from the campaign trail once I move in.
[1] Mean of 103,000, standard deviation of ~11,000, meaning 95% of constituencies have between 80,600 and 125,300 population. Data as of 2021 census.
[2] If a party wins the majority, they will form government. If no party wins a majority, they may negotiate an alliance with another party to secure their victory and a majority, for example David Cameron and Nick Clegg uniting the Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats in 2010. A parliament is considered “hung” if there is no majority party or coalition. In theory, it would be possible for the party who won the most votes to lose the leadership if the second-largest party formed a large enough coalition (as happened with Jacinda Ardern’s first Labour government in New Zealand), but I’m not aware of a case of this happening in the UK.